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Clash of Powers: The Shadow Conflict of Israel-Iran

Introduction:

The Israel-Iran conflict is a key factor shaping the region's geopolitics, attracting global powers, and fueling Middle East instability. Considered as "shadow war," the cause of the Iran-Israel conflict lies in deep political, religious, and technological tensions. Although Israel and Iran have never engaged in full-scale war, the conflict has expanded through proxy wars, cyber attacks, and Middle East broadcasts. Historically, Israel and Iran were allied during the Shah's regime, which changed after the Islamic Revolution in 1979. This resulted in the establishment of a religio-political government that legitimized Israel. On the other hand, when Iran's nuclear ambitions threatened Israel's existence, Israel carried out covert operations, including the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotage of nuclear facilities, to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. 

Table of contents:

• Background of Israel and Iran war
• History of Israel and Iran war
• The Arab-Israel allaince
• Timeline of Israel-Iran war
• Effect of Iran-Israel war

 

• Background of Israel and Iran war:

A complex mix of historical, political, and ideological factors underlies the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Israel and Iran maintained cordial relations under the pro-Western Shah of Iran. However, the Islamic Revolution of 1979 radically changed the political landscape of Iran. This establishes a theocratic regime that opposes the existence of Israel, viewing it as the "Zionist enemy." Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini supported the anti-Israel movement, declaring Israel illegitimate. Tensions escalated as Iran began supporting militant groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, which have fought against Israel for years. Israel, in turn, views Iran’s influence in the region, particularly through these proxy groups, as a major security threat.

Iran's support for militant groups opposed to Israel, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, has increased tensions between the two countries as a result of Israel's insecurity over Iran's increasing influence, rather than through proxy groups. Iran's nuclear program has given this conflict a turning point. Fear of extinction due to a nuclear-armed Iran prompted Israel to take preventive measures, including the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and cyber attacks.

A "shadow war" also ensued between the two countries through proxy forces in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Except for this, Iran's military presence in Syria during the Syrian civil war prompted Israel to launch airstrikes targeting Iranian and Hezbollah assets. After all, even if there is no direct war between the two countries, their rivalry continues to shape larger geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, which are always at risk of escalation.

• History of Israel and Iran war:

Driven by political, ideological, and regional dynamics, the history of the Israel-Iran shadow war goes something like this:

• Friendly relations (pre-1979): Despite Israel being a Muslim majority country, before 1979, under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Israel and Iran had friendly relations, which supported the two countries economically and militarily.
• Islamic Revolution and Enmity (Post-1979): After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the new Islamic Republic of Iran, created under Ayatollah Khomeini, identified Israel as the "Zionist enemy" and supported Palestinian rights, leading to deep animosity between Iran and Israel.
• Rise of Hezbollah (1980): Financial and military support for the Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah and the 2006 Lebanon War intensified Iran's hostility toward Israel, which has served as a key proxy in the Israel-Iran conflict.
• Nuclear Issue (2000): US-backed Iran's nuclear program increases Israeli-Iranian tensions. Israel has carried out covert operations, including the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists, and cyber-attacks such as the 2010 Stuxnet virus, to impede this progress.
• Proxy wars and Syria (2011–present): During the Syrian civil war, Iran increased its military presence to support Assad as Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets to counter Iranian forces near its border. In addition, Iran's growing influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon poses a security threat to Israel, leading to the emergence of proxy forces and "shadow wars" in regional conflicts.
• Current Status: In recent years, Israel has targeted Iranian-backed forces in Syria and Lebanon, while Iran has expanded its cyber and missile capabilities. This has led to occasional direct confrontations, including Israeli strikes on Iranian convoys and bases in Syria and Iranian attacks on Israeli ships and cyber assets.

Although Israel and Iran have never fought a direct war, their complex rivalry involves cyber warfare, intelligence operations, and proxy conflicts, creating persistent tension across the Middle East.

• The Arab-Israel alliance:

The Arab-Israeli alliance is a recent geopolitical shift in the Middle East, which primarily marks the normalization of diplomatic and economic relations between Israel and several Arab nations. This collaboration was formalized in 2020 through an agreement, as was the Abrahamic Accords. Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco are parties to this agreement. The reasons for this agreement are:

• Iran Concerns: Many Arab countries, especially Israel, see Iran as a common regional threat due to Iran's nuclear ambitions and its support of proxy groups across the Middle East.
• Financial opportunities: These agreements benefit the regional economy by improving trade, tourism, technology, and joint ventures.
• Diplomatic pressure: The United States played a key role in brokering these agreements through military sales and financial assistance.
• Strategic Realignment: This agreement helps to ensure Arab and Israeli stability in the face of dynamics and changing interests of global powers, increasing economic growth and balancing other regional alliances.

• Timeline of Israel-Iran war:

Here is a detailed timeline of key events in the recent Iran-Israel conflict in 2023 and 2024:

• October 7, 2023: Hamas carried out an unpredicted violent attack on Israel from Gaza, killing 1,200 Israelis and detaining more than 200, prompting Israel to launch an intensive military operation against Gaza.
• October 8, 2023: Israel launches airstrikes in Gaza in response to Hamas attacks that sharply escalate Israel's hostilities with Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere.
• April 1, 2024: Israel conducts a Syrian airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing Iranian military advisers, leading to a significant escalation of direct conflict between Israel and Iran.
• April 13, 2024: Iran launches its first direct attack on Israel, including more than 300 drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles, stressing Israel's defense capabilities.
• April 19, 2024: Israel retaliates with airstrikes targeting internal Iranian military installations, including sites in Isfahan, turning the conflict from a proxy-based engagement into an outright war.
• July 31, 2024: Tehran's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyah by Israeli intelligence deepens Iran-Israel hostility.
• September 27, 2024: The death of Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut heightens involvement in the conflict.
• October 1, 2024: Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles in a two-wave attack targeting military installations, including Nevatim Airbase and intelligence agencies, near Tel Aviv, Israel, the most extensive missile attack in the ongoing conflict. As a result Israel suffered heavy losses.
• October 26, 2024: Israel responds to Iranian airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations, air defense systems, and missile production facilities, deepening the dispute.
• Current Status: The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict has affected the regional and global power of both countries. The United States has deployed resources to support Israel's defense. The situation remains volatile with the possibility of a larger regional conflict involving Iranian forces, Hezbollah, and other regional powers.

• Effect of Iran-Israel war:

 The potential impact of a war between Iran and Israel would be significant for both countries and the wider region. Here are some key points:

• Impact on Iran:

• Military and infrastructure damage: Prolonged violent conflict has resulted in severe damage to infrastructure, military and civilian uses, and many casualties.
• Economic strain: Due to this ongoing conflict, Iran's economy has suffered with military spending and other international sanctions, which are likely to worsen in the future.
• Political instability: Prolonged war creates internal dissension, which leads to political instability.
• Regional influence: Depending on the outcome of the war, Iran's influence over a region and military system will increase or decrease.

• Impact on Israel:

• Security Threats: As a result of the conflict, Israel faces immediate security threats like missile attacks, ground attacks, civilian deaths, etc.
• Military Depletion: A war would lead to military casualties and could stretch Israel's defense forces, requiring the accumulation of reserves and resources.
• International Relations: This conflict may affect Israel's diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern countries.
• Long-term strategy: A conflict can affect defense policy or alliances by controlling Israel's military and strategic outlook.

• Greater Impact of Conflict:

• Humanitarian Crisis: Conflict can displace populations, cause loss of life, and degrade the normal conditions of life in conflict-affected countries and their neighbors.
• Geopolitical Repercussion: War affects US interests and may alter power dynamics in the Gulf and other neighboring countries.
• Economic Impact: Oil supply shortages and market disruptions have far-reaching effects on the world economy.

Conclusion:

In summary, security concerns, territorial disputes, and ideological differences, along with cyber attacks, intelligence operations, and proxy conflicts, primarily drive the protracted Israel-Iran conflict rather than open warfare. Iran's nuclear program and support for Hezbollah and Hamas pose a serious threat to Israel, prompting Israel to attack and oppose it. The tension between the two countries has destabilized the political and civil life of Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza in the Middle East. The US's support for Israel and Russia's support for Iran add to the complexity. While efforts such as the Abraham Accord offer some hope, no permanent solution to the dispute is possible without direct negotiations.